ABT MSE: Atlantic bluefin tuna Management Strategy Evaluation (v7.6.6, 2022-06-10)


The Atlantic-Wide Research Programme on Bluefin Tuna (GBYP) is investigating MSE for providing robust advice consistent with the precautionary approach. MSE aims to reveal management procedures that are robust to uncertainties in data collection, population and fishing dynamics. In MSE these uncertainties are represented by alternative operating models (OMs).
In this PRELIMINARY interactive demo, the user can choose different sets of operating models to investigate how uncertainties affect performance trade-offs and stock projections for multiple candidate management procedures.




OM SET 1




Operating models selected

OM codes

Performance metrics

East Area


West Area

Table 1.
Median of the selected performance metrics over all simulations and selected OMs

East


West

Table 2.
Median and interquantile range of the selected performance metrics over all simulations and selected OMs


East Area

West Area

Figure 1.
Zeh plot showing the median, interquartile and 90% interquantile range for a selected performance metric integrated over all simulations and selected OMs


East Area

West Area

Figure 2.
Zeh plot showing results for OM set 1 operating models individually. Plotted are the median, interquartile and 90% interquantile range for a selected performance metric over all simulations


East Area

West Area

Figure 3.
As Figure 1 but showing multiple performance metrics simultaneously. Plotted are the median, interquartile and 90% interquantile range for three performance metrics over all simulations

Eastern Area

Western Area

Figure 4.
A trade-off plot showing median performance over all selected OMs and simulations.

Area / Stock Trade-offs

Figure 5.
A trade-off plot showing inter stock / area median performance over all selected OMs and simulations.

! does not account for OM weights !

Eastern Stock

Western Stock

Figure 6.
Catch (by area) and SSB (by stock) projections calculated over all selected OMs and simulations.

! does not account for OM weights !

Eastern Stock

Western Stock

Figure 7.
As figure 6 but showing uncertainty in Catch (by area) and SSB (by stock) outcomes for up to three MPs. The projected values of catch (by area) and SSB (by stock) are the mean values across all simulations and selected OMs.


Eastern Stock

Western Stock

Figure 8.
As figure 7 but showing by-simulation results for a single OM for up to two MPs. The projected values of catch (by area) and SSB (by stock) are the mean values across all simulations and selected OMs.

! does not account for OM weights !

Eastern Stock

Western Stock

Figure 9.
Harvest rate (U) relative to UMSY (by stock) projections calculated over all selected OMs and simulations.


Eastern Stock

Western Stock

Figure 10.
Radar plots show the mean of the performance metrics (over all simulations and selected OMs). Radar plots are intended to distinguish good and bad performing CMPs according to the shaded area. It follows that some metrics are either inverted (denoted with an i) or are a reciprocal (r) such that larger plotted areas reflect better performance.


Figure 11.
As Figure 9 but allowing for cross-stock performance evaluation. Plots show the mean of the performance metrics (over all simulations and selected OMs). Radar plots are intended to distinguish good and bad performing CMPs according to the shaded area. It follows that some metrics are either inverted (denoted with an i) or are a reciprocal (r) such that larger plotted areas reflect better performance.

OM SET 2




Operating models selected

OM codes



copyright (c) ICCAT 2021